Fantasy basketball is different from the rest of the major fantasy games. It provides the farthest gap between real-life value and fantasy value. In baseball, if you put up big numbers, that is what your value is since it's such an individual sport. If a player puts up massive yardage in football, he is obviously valuable because his team is gaining those same yards. In basketball, however, there are so many categories, variables and players involved, that one person's numbers do not necessarily correlate to real-life value. In fantasy, a player gets penalized for turning the ball over and shooting a low FG%, but those players are usually on bad teams and are forced to handle the ball a lot and are put in worse positions. Take Shawn Marion, who for years was the #1 player in fantasy because he put up points, rebounds, steals, blocks and shot great percentages. Was this all due to him? No, the system he was in, Steve Nash, the fact that he had little offensive responsibility (meaning he could hide on offense and take people by surprise) and the fact that there were no rebounders on the Suns, which gave them all to him all contributed to his fantasy superstardom. But, we know in real-life, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are infinitely more valuable.
But, we're not talking about real-life here. To win in fantasy basketball, you need to win with the players who are boring, but do not hurt you. Think of players who add to the table and do not take anything off. This is why I have railed against pre-gun Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose. Below are players you might see as boring, but ones you need to get because they will win you your league. The good thing is, once you realize this fact, you can start to trade for these guys by playing on other owners' misconceptions of value.
Kevin Love: Love is seen as a plodding center if you just take a quick look and rarely does anything to get on SportsCenter. But, he is a great passer, a great shooter and a great rebounder. Love is a top-30 fantasy player and if you have flashier players to try and get a guy who will put up great percentages, 18 points and 11 rebounds, then you need to get him.
Mo Williams: The guy that always gets wide-open looks because no one is paying attention to him is always dangerous, especially when that player is very good to begin with. Williams has the benefit of having an invisibility cloak whenever LeBron James is on the court. This has equated to a .458 FG% for the season and 2.3 threes per game for a prominently perimeter player. He also puts up 4.9 assists and is shooting over 88% from the line. Williams is a great glue guy, who will balance your FT% and your threes.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Stay-Aways
I have come across a mock draft for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. I think it's a good idea to at least take a look every other week, to just see who's moving up and down and who's overvalued or undervalued. We'll break it down into sections, so this post is easier to follow. Keep in mind, this was an "expert" draft, so the biases towards certain players may be in conflict with actual reality. But, I will rate these players based on where they were drafted in this particular draft.
The picks are based on: http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/
The Cliff Lee Under-valued Pitcher Division
Roy Halladay (Round 4, Pick 2): This section refers to pitchers who are undervalued for whatever reason (change of scenery, past injuries, bad reputation, etc.). It seems strange to list a 4th rounder in the sleeper section, but Roy Halladay will be a top 3 pitcher this season, which he already may be. First, though he's going to a hitter's ballpark, he will now get to feast on the weak National League and the even weaker NL East. He will get a healthy dose of Mets, Marlins, Nationals and Braves. So, instead of facing the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, he will now face their backups with one of the only lineups in the NL that can compete with the AL. Think 21 wins, 2.60 ERA and 8.5 K/9 at the very minimum. If he's still around in the third round, I'm taking him.
Cliff Lee (R7, P 11): Lee finally came through last season and will be picked within the first 30 picks for sure this year. For whatever reason, Cliff does not receive the respect he deserves in fantasy. What more proof do people need? I find it shocking that Cliff Lee was picked in the 7th round before Tommy Hanson (7-7). People might forget that Lee won the Cy Young award in 2008 and had great peripheral numbers last year, in what was viewed as a down year (3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 7.0 K/9). He'll now be pitching in the cavernous Safeco Field, so while he may be back in the AL, his park will more than make up for it. Plus, he's proven he can pitch in the AL.
The Pitcher Roulette Wheel
A strategy I like to utilize is taking a lot of risk on pitchers, since teams should be built around hitting. It is never a good idea to take pitchers in the first and second round. You can always mix and match. If you draft 4 fliers, then wait for a month to see how they are performing, you can make up for the innings later in the year and you will have more information. In the meantime, you can pitch them against weak matchups, which is something you can't do with hitters.
The four pitchers I like for this strategy are Cole Hamels (9-2), Brandon Webb (11-12), Edwin Jackson (19-6), Ben Sheets (20-10) and Erik Bedard (20-12). Hamels was on the rise until his struggles last year, which can be largely contributed to pitching so many innings when the Phillies won the World Series. Webb is an injury risk but has Cy Young potential. Jackson had a sub-3.00 ERA well into July before he imploded. Sheets has 5th-6th round potential, but is the biggest injury risk of them all. Bedard was considered a top-10 pitcher as recently as two years ago. If you can actually get all five of these guys, you'll win if two of them pan out.
The Sky's the Limit
Carlos Gonzalez (9-7): In the 9th round, you can start taking risks. You can probably justify taking him in Round 7 ahead of Nate McLouth (6-2) and Chone Figgins (6-12). He played half a season last year. If you project him for a full year (based on last season's numbers), he would have had 26 HRs and 32 SBs. That, and he also hit .284 and had a .878 OPS which shows he is hitting for power and has a good eye, though he strikes out a lot, if that makes sense. For a guy with 30-30 potential, you can take the risk.
Julio Borbon (19-5): For some reason, no one was on the Borbon bandwagon in any of my leagues last year, maybe due to his only being UTIL eligible. Now, with OF eligibility, he is a true steal, no pun intended. When taking guys who ONLY steal bases, it is tough to justify taking Jacoby Ellsbury (2-7) in the second round or Figgins in the sixth. On a side note, Figgins in Seattle equals a huge disaster. He's playing in a weaker lineup and a bigger ballpark. Enough said. But, back to basestealing. If a guy has leg issues during the year, he is completely useless and guys who have speed will have leg issues at some point. Why spend an early pick on a basestealer, when you can nab Borbon in the bottom third of the draft? He has 50 SB potential (he had 67 last year, if you project over 162 games) and will probably get you around 10-12 HRs and score a lot of runs. Give me David Wright and Borbon over Ellsbury and Magglio Ordonez.
The Limit's the Sky
Alfonso Soriano (6-5): Please do me a favor and stay away. He has no trade value and I couldn't give him away last year. He missed 45 games last year and only batted .241 with decent power and he's not getting any younger. Please just stay away and grab Andre Ethier or Carlos Lee.
Jason Bay (3-7): I will not be drafting Bay this year. While his final numbers were great, he disappeared for two months in Boston. Now, take him away from a hitter's paradise at Fenway to the dead-end zone called Citi Field. Add to that, just signing a huge contract, so he has little incentive to play for. While he may not see a huge dropoff like David Wright owners saw last year, expect a precipitous drop in numbers. Think .265, 20 HR and 80 RBIs. That's not what you want to spend an early pick on. Let that be someone else's problem.
The Brady Anderson Big Year Conundrum
This is the biggest wildcard in all of fantasy baseball. This pick can sink you or cruise you to the league championship and there is no way to decipher which way it'll end up. Will Mark Reynolds be this year's Josh Hamilton or will he be Ryan Braun? I tend to stay away from these guys and go with more established players. But, if you're in the second round and the top guys available are Reynolds, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, then I can see where you might want to take the leap. Future superstars have to start with one good year.
Matt Kemp (1-6): Perhaps the biggest surprise in the first round is Kemp. He is the epitome of the five-tool player. If you take him this high, you are probably expecting 30 HR and 40 SB. if you don't get that, then you paid too much. While his HR numbers have risen every season, his .842 OPS scares me. When a player has less than .900, then he is not a true power hitter. If he's not a true power hitter, then what are you paying for? Steals? We went over that already. Take Kemp in the mid-second or later. Don't waste a top pick on him when you cantake a guaranteed player earlier. You don't want to blow your first rounder. You can't recover from that.
Joe Mauer (2-1): I would really avoid taking a catcher this early. I am definitely in the minority on this one. Everyone loves Mauer and that can happen when a catcher wins the MVP. If you told me he would get those numbers guaranteed next year, then I would take him with the 7th-10th picks. That will probably not happen. Keep in mind, he hit 28 HRs last year. He hit 36 HRs in the four years prior combined, so I am pretty suspicious since last season when against a lot of previous information that we had on Mauer. If you take Mauer in the first round and he puts up 12 HR and 75 RBI, then you completely whiffed.
Ian Kinsler (2-2): For all of his potential, I would stay away from Kinsler based on one stat. 133 missed games in the last four years. While missed games are slightly overrated since you can have a replacement player put up stats for the games he missed. But, that many games missed consistently is a scary trend. His .814 OPS is also below average for a premium player, though the 30+ SBs helps. It is too much of a risk to take him that early.
The picks are based on: http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/
The Cliff Lee Under-valued Pitcher Division
Roy Halladay (Round 4, Pick 2): This section refers to pitchers who are undervalued for whatever reason (change of scenery, past injuries, bad reputation, etc.). It seems strange to list a 4th rounder in the sleeper section, but Roy Halladay will be a top 3 pitcher this season, which he already may be. First, though he's going to a hitter's ballpark, he will now get to feast on the weak National League and the even weaker NL East. He will get a healthy dose of Mets, Marlins, Nationals and Braves. So, instead of facing the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, he will now face their backups with one of the only lineups in the NL that can compete with the AL. Think 21 wins, 2.60 ERA and 8.5 K/9 at the very minimum. If he's still around in the third round, I'm taking him.
Cliff Lee (R7, P 11): Lee finally came through last season and will be picked within the first 30 picks for sure this year. For whatever reason, Cliff does not receive the respect he deserves in fantasy. What more proof do people need? I find it shocking that Cliff Lee was picked in the 7th round before Tommy Hanson (7-7). People might forget that Lee won the Cy Young award in 2008 and had great peripheral numbers last year, in what was viewed as a down year (3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 7.0 K/9). He'll now be pitching in the cavernous Safeco Field, so while he may be back in the AL, his park will more than make up for it. Plus, he's proven he can pitch in the AL.
The Pitcher Roulette Wheel
A strategy I like to utilize is taking a lot of risk on pitchers, since teams should be built around hitting. It is never a good idea to take pitchers in the first and second round. You can always mix and match. If you draft 4 fliers, then wait for a month to see how they are performing, you can make up for the innings later in the year and you will have more information. In the meantime, you can pitch them against weak matchups, which is something you can't do with hitters.
The four pitchers I like for this strategy are Cole Hamels (9-2), Brandon Webb (11-12), Edwin Jackson (19-6), Ben Sheets (20-10) and Erik Bedard (20-12). Hamels was on the rise until his struggles last year, which can be largely contributed to pitching so many innings when the Phillies won the World Series. Webb is an injury risk but has Cy Young potential. Jackson had a sub-3.00 ERA well into July before he imploded. Sheets has 5th-6th round potential, but is the biggest injury risk of them all. Bedard was considered a top-10 pitcher as recently as two years ago. If you can actually get all five of these guys, you'll win if two of them pan out.
The Sky's the Limit
Carlos Gonzalez (9-7): In the 9th round, you can start taking risks. You can probably justify taking him in Round 7 ahead of Nate McLouth (6-2) and Chone Figgins (6-12). He played half a season last year. If you project him for a full year (based on last season's numbers), he would have had 26 HRs and 32 SBs. That, and he also hit .284 and had a .878 OPS which shows he is hitting for power and has a good eye, though he strikes out a lot, if that makes sense. For a guy with 30-30 potential, you can take the risk.
Julio Borbon (19-5): For some reason, no one was on the Borbon bandwagon in any of my leagues last year, maybe due to his only being UTIL eligible. Now, with OF eligibility, he is a true steal, no pun intended. When taking guys who ONLY steal bases, it is tough to justify taking Jacoby Ellsbury (2-7) in the second round or Figgins in the sixth. On a side note, Figgins in Seattle equals a huge disaster. He's playing in a weaker lineup and a bigger ballpark. Enough said. But, back to basestealing. If a guy has leg issues during the year, he is completely useless and guys who have speed will have leg issues at some point. Why spend an early pick on a basestealer, when you can nab Borbon in the bottom third of the draft? He has 50 SB potential (he had 67 last year, if you project over 162 games) and will probably get you around 10-12 HRs and score a lot of runs. Give me David Wright and Borbon over Ellsbury and Magglio Ordonez.
The Limit's the Sky
Alfonso Soriano (6-5): Please do me a favor and stay away. He has no trade value and I couldn't give him away last year. He missed 45 games last year and only batted .241 with decent power and he's not getting any younger. Please just stay away and grab Andre Ethier or Carlos Lee.
Jason Bay (3-7): I will not be drafting Bay this year. While his final numbers were great, he disappeared for two months in Boston. Now, take him away from a hitter's paradise at Fenway to the dead-end zone called Citi Field. Add to that, just signing a huge contract, so he has little incentive to play for. While he may not see a huge dropoff like David Wright owners saw last year, expect a precipitous drop in numbers. Think .265, 20 HR and 80 RBIs. That's not what you want to spend an early pick on. Let that be someone else's problem.
The Brady Anderson Big Year Conundrum
This is the biggest wildcard in all of fantasy baseball. This pick can sink you or cruise you to the league championship and there is no way to decipher which way it'll end up. Will Mark Reynolds be this year's Josh Hamilton or will he be Ryan Braun? I tend to stay away from these guys and go with more established players. But, if you're in the second round and the top guys available are Reynolds, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, then I can see where you might want to take the leap. Future superstars have to start with one good year.
Matt Kemp (1-6): Perhaps the biggest surprise in the first round is Kemp. He is the epitome of the five-tool player. If you take him this high, you are probably expecting 30 HR and 40 SB. if you don't get that, then you paid too much. While his HR numbers have risen every season, his .842 OPS scares me. When a player has less than .900, then he is not a true power hitter. If he's not a true power hitter, then what are you paying for? Steals? We went over that already. Take Kemp in the mid-second or later. Don't waste a top pick on him when you cantake a guaranteed player earlier. You don't want to blow your first rounder. You can't recover from that.
Joe Mauer (2-1): I would really avoid taking a catcher this early. I am definitely in the minority on this one. Everyone loves Mauer and that can happen when a catcher wins the MVP. If you told me he would get those numbers guaranteed next year, then I would take him with the 7th-10th picks. That will probably not happen. Keep in mind, he hit 28 HRs last year. He hit 36 HRs in the four years prior combined, so I am pretty suspicious since last season when against a lot of previous information that we had on Mauer. If you take Mauer in the first round and he puts up 12 HR and 75 RBI, then you completely whiffed.
Ian Kinsler (2-2): For all of his potential, I would stay away from Kinsler based on one stat. 133 missed games in the last four years. While missed games are slightly overrated since you can have a replacement player put up stats for the games he missed. But, that many games missed consistently is a scary trend. His .814 OPS is also below average for a premium player, though the 30+ SBs helps. It is too much of a risk to take him that early.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Friday Megapost
Stop by tomorrow for my list of five players you need to get right now in fantasy basketball leagues. Plus, it's never too early to get a jump on the fantasy baseball landscape and the fantasy football keeper landscape.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Fantasy Basketball Trade Advice
A fantasy team is like owning stocks. To be successful, you need to churn and burn as often as you can. If you stay stagnant, you will lose. The game changes so quickly that you have to assess value and decide when to make a change or not. For example, if you owned Brandon Jennings, last month you probably rejected every offer you got for him and now you were wishing you had pressed the accept button. What you should have done was, reject that offer, then ask for more. I know it's easy to look back at Jennings as an example, but it's true. Below I will talk about guys you should consider trading divided into two categories. One is called "Artifical Value," which discussses players who have fantasy value only because of their perceived true life skills. If you own a player with Artificial Value, then he is only hurting your team by taking up a roster spot that could be filled by a lesser known but better fantasy player. The second category is called "Sell High," which is pretty self-explanatory. If you have any of these guys, trade them immediately before they lose all of their value. I will list players who may be good targets to ask for in a return package, from the same position.
Artificial Value
1: Gilbert Arenas (PG - Was) - Gilbert is the king of artificial value. At the moment, out of nine categories, he is MURDERING you in three categories (we'll forgive blocks due to his position). Now, you might say that he is an all-star in four categories, but in fantasy basketball, there are three negative accumulation categories (FG%, FT% and TO). This means that a player can lose you points by playing. In fantasy baseball, there is one category for hitters and two for pitchers (which is why you need to draft hitting, but we'll cross that bridge in March). He is currently shooting 40.9% from the field and 73.7% at the line at a whopping 18.9 and 6.8 attempts, respectively. That torpedoes you in two categories. He also averages 3.8 turnovers a game, which you can never get back once you've lost it.
Gilbert was probably drafted in the third or fourth round of your draft. The further you get away fromt he draft, the more his value will drop. But, the reason he gets drafted is die to the fact that he is viewed as a good player in real life. Trade him immediately for a more beneficial player.
Good targets: Monta Ellis and Mo Williams are guys you can reasonably get in return. If you want to reach, try to get Jason Kidd and Tyreke Evans. You can definitely get Aaron Brooks back (who is a better player), but try to get more. Use Brooks as a fall-back.
2: Tony Parker (PG - SA) - Value-wise, he is a level below Gilbert Arenas. He is a great player in real-life, but provides very little in many categories, except for a huge 3.1 TOs a game. There is nothing he does that stands out numbers-wise. He has 5.6 assistes per game, which is low for a PG. He doesn't shoot threes or get many steals, so he is killing you in a different way than Arenas, but just as deadly.
Good targets: Ben Gordon is a good buy-low here. You may be able to get Jonny Flynn in a one-for-one. Aaron Brooks and Rodney Stuckey are good targets, so it's worth a shot. But, honestly, there has got to be a PG on the waiver wire that provides more production than Parker.
3: Dwight Howard (C - Orl) - How could I forget the King of Artificial Value? While Dwight actually wins you one category (FG%) and dominates in two others (rebounds and blocks), he hurts you in TO (3.4) and MURDERS you in FT%. He is currently shooting 60.1% at 10.4 attempts, which is his highest percentage in FIVE years. This is the sole reason I would stay away from Dwight to begin with in rotisserie leagues. On a side note, in head-to-head leagues he is a top-five player since all you have to do is win 5 out of 9 categories a week. It's easier to build around a player like Howard and lose certain categories. In rotisserie, you lose points by tanking a category; you need a more balanced team. It's not too late, you can see where you are in the standings and build around your current numbers and try to come back. If you own Dwight, you have a great chance to sucker someone who thinks Howard is actually valuable in fantasy and you need someone who's going to bring that FT% back up.
Good targets: If you can get Brook Lopez for Howard, then you hit the jackpot. I would also try to do a two-for-one trade to get Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh from an unsuspecting owner. There are guys like Nene or Horford, who I like better than Howard in a vacuum, but the goal is to restore that FT%.
4: Derrick Rose (PG - Chi) - Rose was actually drafted in the second round in one of my leagues. Rose is definitely a player you would want to build around in real life. He has great ball handling skills and great leadership skills. Unfortunately, those skills don't directly translate to the numbers. His numbers are slightly better than Parker's, but you may be able to get good value out of him. He shoots slightly below-average percentages, gets you an average number of rebounds and assists, never hits a three and not even one steal or one block per game. If he's not hurting you, he's definitely not helping.
Good targets: Mo Williams hits two more threes per game, shoots 11 points better from the line and has similar numbers to Rose in every other category.
5: Elton Brand (PF,C - Phi) - I'm not sure that Brand has any value at this point because he's received a lot of negative plubicity, plus he's been hurt. But, based on his draft position, you might be able to get something in return and I would recommend that you do. He is a huge injury risk and he's actually playing better this past month, which makes this a good time to cut bait. That Achilles is going to come up later in the year and he's going to start shooting more jumpers to compensate and he's going to be afraid to bang as the season goes on.
Good targets: Troy Murphy is correctly regarded only by true fantasy players. It wouldn't hurt to try this one. Troy Murphy is always a top-20 fantasy player, but gets drafted in the fifth round or later. It's these inefficiencies and biases you have to exploit to win. LaMarcus Aldridge is also a good player to target, as is David Lee.
Sell High
1: Zach Randolph (F - Mem) - Zach has seen a huge spike in numbers this season and is on a 30/20 binge lately. This can be attributed to being the main guy on a team going nowhere, but what concerns me is that his numbers are abnormally high. He also misses about 8-12 games a season and has a history of quitting on teams. A lot of people think Zach loves these situations where his teams lose as long as he's putting up numbers, but he's quit on the Clippers and the Knicks (the two most dysfuntional franchises this decade). He may prove me wrong, but it would be wise to sell Zach before he starts to get hurt again.
2: Tyreke Evans (G - Sac) - This is definitely not to say that Evans is a bad player. The concern is that his value is SKY-HIGH right now. I have seen people offer Al Jefferson, Josh Smith or Rudy Gay in some leagues and been turned down. His owners are really over-valuing Evans. The bottom line is that Evans shoots average percentages, rarely hit a three and turns the ball over a ton (3.1). His numbers this past month are through the roof, but with Martin coming back soon, now is a good time to get a lot in return for Evans. Keep in mind, Martin may get traded later in the year, but he will be back soon.
3: Kevin Garnett (F - Bos) - What concerns me the most for garnett is his knees. He missed 25 games next year and knees generally don't get better. They don't especially when a guy has played over 1200 games. he may only be 33, but he's played as many games as a 37 year old. Expect the Celtics to rest Garnett later in the season and that's a BEST case scenario. The WORST is, obviously, that he will get hurt again and you will get nothing in return.
Artificial Value
1: Gilbert Arenas (PG - Was) - Gilbert is the king of artificial value. At the moment, out of nine categories, he is MURDERING you in three categories (we'll forgive blocks due to his position). Now, you might say that he is an all-star in four categories, but in fantasy basketball, there are three negative accumulation categories (FG%, FT% and TO). This means that a player can lose you points by playing. In fantasy baseball, there is one category for hitters and two for pitchers (which is why you need to draft hitting, but we'll cross that bridge in March). He is currently shooting 40.9% from the field and 73.7% at the line at a whopping 18.9 and 6.8 attempts, respectively. That torpedoes you in two categories. He also averages 3.8 turnovers a game, which you can never get back once you've lost it.
Gilbert was probably drafted in the third or fourth round of your draft. The further you get away fromt he draft, the more his value will drop. But, the reason he gets drafted is die to the fact that he is viewed as a good player in real life. Trade him immediately for a more beneficial player.
Good targets: Monta Ellis and Mo Williams are guys you can reasonably get in return. If you want to reach, try to get Jason Kidd and Tyreke Evans. You can definitely get Aaron Brooks back (who is a better player), but try to get more. Use Brooks as a fall-back.
2: Tony Parker (PG - SA) - Value-wise, he is a level below Gilbert Arenas. He is a great player in real-life, but provides very little in many categories, except for a huge 3.1 TOs a game. There is nothing he does that stands out numbers-wise. He has 5.6 assistes per game, which is low for a PG. He doesn't shoot threes or get many steals, so he is killing you in a different way than Arenas, but just as deadly.
Good targets: Ben Gordon is a good buy-low here. You may be able to get Jonny Flynn in a one-for-one. Aaron Brooks and Rodney Stuckey are good targets, so it's worth a shot. But, honestly, there has got to be a PG on the waiver wire that provides more production than Parker.
3: Dwight Howard (C - Orl) - How could I forget the King of Artificial Value? While Dwight actually wins you one category (FG%) and dominates in two others (rebounds and blocks), he hurts you in TO (3.4) and MURDERS you in FT%. He is currently shooting 60.1% at 10.4 attempts, which is his highest percentage in FIVE years. This is the sole reason I would stay away from Dwight to begin with in rotisserie leagues. On a side note, in head-to-head leagues he is a top-five player since all you have to do is win 5 out of 9 categories a week. It's easier to build around a player like Howard and lose certain categories. In rotisserie, you lose points by tanking a category; you need a more balanced team. It's not too late, you can see where you are in the standings and build around your current numbers and try to come back. If you own Dwight, you have a great chance to sucker someone who thinks Howard is actually valuable in fantasy and you need someone who's going to bring that FT% back up.
Good targets: If you can get Brook Lopez for Howard, then you hit the jackpot. I would also try to do a two-for-one trade to get Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh from an unsuspecting owner. There are guys like Nene or Horford, who I like better than Howard in a vacuum, but the goal is to restore that FT%.
4: Derrick Rose (PG - Chi) - Rose was actually drafted in the second round in one of my leagues. Rose is definitely a player you would want to build around in real life. He has great ball handling skills and great leadership skills. Unfortunately, those skills don't directly translate to the numbers. His numbers are slightly better than Parker's, but you may be able to get good value out of him. He shoots slightly below-average percentages, gets you an average number of rebounds and assists, never hits a three and not even one steal or one block per game. If he's not hurting you, he's definitely not helping.
Good targets: Mo Williams hits two more threes per game, shoots 11 points better from the line and has similar numbers to Rose in every other category.
5: Elton Brand (PF,C - Phi) - I'm not sure that Brand has any value at this point because he's received a lot of negative plubicity, plus he's been hurt. But, based on his draft position, you might be able to get something in return and I would recommend that you do. He is a huge injury risk and he's actually playing better this past month, which makes this a good time to cut bait. That Achilles is going to come up later in the year and he's going to start shooting more jumpers to compensate and he's going to be afraid to bang as the season goes on.
Good targets: Troy Murphy is correctly regarded only by true fantasy players. It wouldn't hurt to try this one. Troy Murphy is always a top-20 fantasy player, but gets drafted in the fifth round or later. It's these inefficiencies and biases you have to exploit to win. LaMarcus Aldridge is also a good player to target, as is David Lee.
Sell High
1: Zach Randolph (F - Mem) - Zach has seen a huge spike in numbers this season and is on a 30/20 binge lately. This can be attributed to being the main guy on a team going nowhere, but what concerns me is that his numbers are abnormally high. He also misses about 8-12 games a season and has a history of quitting on teams. A lot of people think Zach loves these situations where his teams lose as long as he's putting up numbers, but he's quit on the Clippers and the Knicks (the two most dysfuntional franchises this decade). He may prove me wrong, but it would be wise to sell Zach before he starts to get hurt again.
2: Tyreke Evans (G - Sac) - This is definitely not to say that Evans is a bad player. The concern is that his value is SKY-HIGH right now. I have seen people offer Al Jefferson, Josh Smith or Rudy Gay in some leagues and been turned down. His owners are really over-valuing Evans. The bottom line is that Evans shoots average percentages, rarely hit a three and turns the ball over a ton (3.1). His numbers this past month are through the roof, but with Martin coming back soon, now is a good time to get a lot in return for Evans. Keep in mind, Martin may get traded later in the year, but he will be back soon.
3: Kevin Garnett (F - Bos) - What concerns me the most for garnett is his knees. He missed 25 games next year and knees generally don't get better. They don't especially when a guy has played over 1200 games. he may only be 33, but he's played as many games as a 37 year old. Expect the Celtics to rest Garnett later in the season and that's a BEST case scenario. The WORST is, obviously, that he will get hurt again and you will get nothing in return.
HOW TO LOSE A LEGACY IN 20 MINUTES
When Jim Caldwell decided to insert Curtis Painter into the game last night, with 5:36 left in the third quarter, I was just as shocked as everyone watching. The fact that an organization would just spit in the faces of all of their fans and the sport was hard to watch. Now I know you're probably thinking, "Shut up grandpa, do you want the leather helmets back too?" But, you have to admit that the fans in the stadium had a point. Now, I'm going to do something scary and try to get into the mind of Jim Caldwell (who, coincidentally, spoke for the first time that I know of last night) and then get right out before I lose any more brain cells.
We Need to Rest for the Playoffs Argument
This argument is the main point of the Colts' organizations rationale, but it has no basis in recent Colts history. Do we really need to bring up 2005 where they started 13-0, rested their players and lost their first playoff game? Apparently I do. In any case, they have a past of using this "resting" strategy and it always backfires. I can understand that guys are nicked up and need to rest, but then why go out and play them for more than a half and not even announce prior to the game what your strategy was? Were they hoping that somehow the Colts would be up by 21 and this wouldn't even be an issue? If you watch The Office, this reminded me of the Halloween episode where Michael had to fire someone and Jim said , "I think he keeps hoping that someone's gonna volunteer or be run over by a bus before the deadline." That's what that strategy was. They pretty much told their fans, "I know you've been following us all year and really wanted to see something special, but we decided against that for your own good. Trust us." Which brings us to our next point.
The Main Goal is not a Perfect Season, It's to win the Super Bowl
I know the goal is to win the championship. Any moron knows the goal of a season is to be number one in the end. Jim Caldwell was nice enough to spell out for us that the Colts' goal in training camp was not for a perfect season, it was for a title. No crap. Who would go into the season with a perfect record as the goal and go 19-0. Things change Jim. When you, all of a sudden, are 14-0, then goals can change. What if I bought XYZ stock at $10 a share and my goal was to triple my money in the year. All of a sudden the stock is at $29 a share in six months, but my rationale is, "I'm not going to sell because my goal was $30." How stupid is that? When you have a chance to make history and become the greatest team ever and for Peyton Manning to cement his staus as the best quarterback ever, I think you have to take that plunge. You pretty much told all of your players to screw off and we know best. Are they really going to fight for you from this point on? They are professionals for sure, but they can't help but feel the wheels have been kicked out fo them here. I mean, they're only human. Was the 10 minutes of rest really worth scarring Curtis Painter for life and losing the trust of your players?
Look what happened to the Patriots
This is my favorite of all the retarded arguments out there. People think that the stress of 19-0 ultimately brought down the Patriots. Every game was the Super Bowl and they never took the pedal off the metal and were worn out by the time they lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl. Admittedly, they did not look sharp in that game and the Giants deserved to win. But, do you really forget one of the flukiest plays of all time was the reason for 18-1? That play could not happen like that if they tried it 100 times in a row. The Pats could have easily gone 19-0 and they had already won three Super Bowls already. If you're Peyton Manning, you already have a Super Bowl, now is the time to cement your legacy.
I'm a little disappointed in Manning. While it is ultimately the coach and management's decision on who plays or not, the bottom line is YOU'RE PEYTON F***ING MANNING!!! You can do whatever the hell you want. Demand to be put back in the game. You have earned the right to override your coach. Hell, there are many that believe Manning actually coaches the team. I can't give him too much crap though, at the end of the day this falls on the Colts' organization. I really hope this bites them in the ass in the end.
We Need to Rest for the Playoffs Argument
This argument is the main point of the Colts' organizations rationale, but it has no basis in recent Colts history. Do we really need to bring up 2005 where they started 13-0, rested their players and lost their first playoff game? Apparently I do. In any case, they have a past of using this "resting" strategy and it always backfires. I can understand that guys are nicked up and need to rest, but then why go out and play them for more than a half and not even announce prior to the game what your strategy was? Were they hoping that somehow the Colts would be up by 21 and this wouldn't even be an issue? If you watch The Office, this reminded me of the Halloween episode where Michael had to fire someone and Jim said , "I think he keeps hoping that someone's gonna volunteer or be run over by a bus before the deadline." That's what that strategy was. They pretty much told their fans, "I know you've been following us all year and really wanted to see something special, but we decided against that for your own good. Trust us." Which brings us to our next point.
The Main Goal is not a Perfect Season, It's to win the Super Bowl
I know the goal is to win the championship. Any moron knows the goal of a season is to be number one in the end. Jim Caldwell was nice enough to spell out for us that the Colts' goal in training camp was not for a perfect season, it was for a title. No crap. Who would go into the season with a perfect record as the goal and go 19-0. Things change Jim. When you, all of a sudden, are 14-0, then goals can change. What if I bought XYZ stock at $10 a share and my goal was to triple my money in the year. All of a sudden the stock is at $29 a share in six months, but my rationale is, "I'm not going to sell because my goal was $30." How stupid is that? When you have a chance to make history and become the greatest team ever and for Peyton Manning to cement his staus as the best quarterback ever, I think you have to take that plunge. You pretty much told all of your players to screw off and we know best. Are they really going to fight for you from this point on? They are professionals for sure, but they can't help but feel the wheels have been kicked out fo them here. I mean, they're only human. Was the 10 minutes of rest really worth scarring Curtis Painter for life and losing the trust of your players?
Look what happened to the Patriots
This is my favorite of all the retarded arguments out there. People think that the stress of 19-0 ultimately brought down the Patriots. Every game was the Super Bowl and they never took the pedal off the metal and were worn out by the time they lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl. Admittedly, they did not look sharp in that game and the Giants deserved to win. But, do you really forget one of the flukiest plays of all time was the reason for 18-1? That play could not happen like that if they tried it 100 times in a row. The Pats could have easily gone 19-0 and they had already won three Super Bowls already. If you're Peyton Manning, you already have a Super Bowl, now is the time to cement your legacy.
I'm a little disappointed in Manning. While it is ultimately the coach and management's decision on who plays or not, the bottom line is YOU'RE PEYTON F***ING MANNING!!! You can do whatever the hell you want. Demand to be put back in the game. You have earned the right to override your coach. Hell, there are many that believe Manning actually coaches the team. I can't give him too much crap though, at the end of the day this falls on the Colts' organization. I really hope this bites them in the ass in the end.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
FIVE GUYS
With the fantasy playoffs starting in most leagues this week, now is a good time to look at five players who could help you that are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo fantasy football leagues. If you would like five more, please look at the blog post from last week. Again, to the three of you reading this right now, good luck.
1) Joshua Cribbs (WR - Cle - 26%) - Cribbs is the hot stock this week. He is only owned in a quarter of leagues, presumably because most teams are out of the playoff race at this point. Cribbs rushed for 87 yards last week against the top-ranked run defense in the NFL. Granted, he didn't gain those yards traditionally, but it was still an impressive feat. The Manginius has stated that he is open to using Cribbs in the Wildcat more often. If that holds true, Cribbs could give you yards and TDs on the ground, through the air and on returns. The possibilities are endless. The only downside is the uniform he wears, but he gets a sweet matchup against the hapless Chiefs defense. If he is your WR3, then he just might be worth the risk.
2) Arian Foster (RB - Hou - 18%) - I am hesitant to recommend someone out of the crowded Houston backfield, but it looks like Foster will get an extended look according to Gary Kubiak. Moats' fumble may have put him in the doghouse and Chris Brown is pretty useless at this point. It looks like Foster will get the most looks out of the backfield, but not all of them. He makes for a solid flex play, but hopefully will not start for you in two-back leagues.
3) Bo Scaife (TE - Ten - 9%) - With Scaife you will need to monitor Vince Young?s status this week, as Young tends to rely on his tight end more often than Kerry Collins seems to. Since TE production is so unpredictable, you need to look at opportunity more than the actual accumulation stats (like yards). In the last five weeks, Scaife has seen an average of 6.8 targets per game. So, if you?re desperate at tight end and Fred Davis is not available, I would take a flyer on Scaife, as long as Young is healthy this week.
4) Seattle D (DEF - Sea - 29%) - On a side note, Houston's defense (26%) is a good play against the hapless Rams. But, on to Seattle. Eight INTs in the last two weeks should be enough to convince you, along with five sacks against the flustered Josh Freeman. Add to that a horrible running attack featuring El Dorado Williams and Derrick Ward's evil twin. This is one of those situations where you just play the matchup.
5) Maurice Morris (RB - Det - 7%) - Because somebody just has to.
I like these guys better. In addition to last week's post, the Washington trifecta of Jason Campbell (33%), Quinton Ganther (45%) and Fred Davis (33%) are still solid pickups.
1) Joshua Cribbs (WR - Cle - 26%) - Cribbs is the hot stock this week. He is only owned in a quarter of leagues, presumably because most teams are out of the playoff race at this point. Cribbs rushed for 87 yards last week against the top-ranked run defense in the NFL. Granted, he didn't gain those yards traditionally, but it was still an impressive feat. The Manginius has stated that he is open to using Cribbs in the Wildcat more often. If that holds true, Cribbs could give you yards and TDs on the ground, through the air and on returns. The possibilities are endless. The only downside is the uniform he wears, but he gets a sweet matchup against the hapless Chiefs defense. If he is your WR3, then he just might be worth the risk.
2) Arian Foster (RB - Hou - 18%) - I am hesitant to recommend someone out of the crowded Houston backfield, but it looks like Foster will get an extended look according to Gary Kubiak. Moats' fumble may have put him in the doghouse and Chris Brown is pretty useless at this point. It looks like Foster will get the most looks out of the backfield, but not all of them. He makes for a solid flex play, but hopefully will not start for you in two-back leagues.
3) Bo Scaife (TE - Ten - 9%) - With Scaife you will need to monitor Vince Young?s status this week, as Young tends to rely on his tight end more often than Kerry Collins seems to. Since TE production is so unpredictable, you need to look at opportunity more than the actual accumulation stats (like yards). In the last five weeks, Scaife has seen an average of 6.8 targets per game. So, if you?re desperate at tight end and Fred Davis is not available, I would take a flyer on Scaife, as long as Young is healthy this week.
4) Seattle D (DEF - Sea - 29%) - On a side note, Houston's defense (26%) is a good play against the hapless Rams. But, on to Seattle. Eight INTs in the last two weeks should be enough to convince you, along with five sacks against the flustered Josh Freeman. Add to that a horrible running attack featuring El Dorado Williams and Derrick Ward's evil twin. This is one of those situations where you just play the matchup.
5) Maurice Morris (RB - Det - 7%) - Because somebody just has to.
I like these guys better. In addition to last week's post, the Washington trifecta of Jason Campbell (33%), Quinton Ganther (45%) and Fred Davis (33%) are still solid pickups.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Thursday
Double post coming up (5 Guys for Fantasy Football and 5 for Fantasy Basketball) tomorrow. Please join. :)
Friday, December 11, 2009
FIVE GUYS (B-Ball Style)
I will try to update these weekly with fresh ideas. Fantasy basketball is the toughest game because a player?s value coincides with his role on the team. Roles rarely change based on they player?s ability, but more due to injuries and relying on other players to perform terribly. If you don?t believe me, ask Anthony Randolph owners. So, here are five guys to watch this week that are owned in less than half of all Yahoo leagues and you can thank me later when you?re hoisting your fantasy trophy at the end of the season. If you?re into that sort of thing.
1) Ersan Ilyasova (PF - Mil - 49%) - Ilyasova's 49% ownership level is a shock. If Andrea Bargnani is Dirk-Lite, then Ilyasova is Dirk Zero. He's not as good as Bargnani, but for a guy who you can pick up for absolutely free in half of the leagues, that is not a bad prospect (remember, Bargnani was going in the 5-6 round range this year). You can expect about 28-32 minutes, 14-16 points, 8 rebounds and a three or two while not hurting you in any category. If you don't have a player you can drop for him, then kudos on your stacked team.
2) CJ Watson (G - GS - 14%) - Watson is receiving plenty of playing time, though that might be tamed down as Golden State returns to full health. In the meantime, he has averaged 30+ minutes per game for the last six games. He has averaged 14.8 pts., 4 reb., 2.8 ast., 9/22 3-FG and 2.33 steals in that time.
3) Dahntay Jones (SG,SF - Ind - 42%) - He showed a lot during last year's playoffs as a defensive force, but on an explosive offensive team like Denver, his role was limited. In Indiana, they need all the help they can get. He has, basically, double all of his previous career highs and is averaging 15.5 ppg, a steal, a block and has very good percentages. With the status of Granger unknown yet, his role will be increased.
4) Will Bynum (G - Det - 33%) - Before rolling his ankle, Bynum was on a roll. Maybe that's why he got hurt? Anyway, if you take out the game he got hurt in, he was averaging 12 pts. and 5.2 ast. He is a very up and down player, so keep an eye on him when he goes on a hot streak.
5) Omri Casspi (F - Sac - 5%) - Casspi has averaged double figures in 8 out of his last 9 games as he?s receiving around 28-30 minutes per game. He hits threes, rebounds pretty well, but doesn't help much in other categories at the moment. He?s not a starter on fantasy teams yet, but if you wanted to wait on him, I couldn't blame you.
1) Ersan Ilyasova (PF - Mil - 49%) - Ilyasova's 49% ownership level is a shock. If Andrea Bargnani is Dirk-Lite, then Ilyasova is Dirk Zero. He's not as good as Bargnani, but for a guy who you can pick up for absolutely free in half of the leagues, that is not a bad prospect (remember, Bargnani was going in the 5-6 round range this year). You can expect about 28-32 minutes, 14-16 points, 8 rebounds and a three or two while not hurting you in any category. If you don't have a player you can drop for him, then kudos on your stacked team.
2) CJ Watson (G - GS - 14%) - Watson is receiving plenty of playing time, though that might be tamed down as Golden State returns to full health. In the meantime, he has averaged 30+ minutes per game for the last six games. He has averaged 14.8 pts., 4 reb., 2.8 ast., 9/22 3-FG and 2.33 steals in that time.
3) Dahntay Jones (SG,SF - Ind - 42%) - He showed a lot during last year's playoffs as a defensive force, but on an explosive offensive team like Denver, his role was limited. In Indiana, they need all the help they can get. He has, basically, double all of his previous career highs and is averaging 15.5 ppg, a steal, a block and has very good percentages. With the status of Granger unknown yet, his role will be increased.
4) Will Bynum (G - Det - 33%) - Before rolling his ankle, Bynum was on a roll. Maybe that's why he got hurt? Anyway, if you take out the game he got hurt in, he was averaging 12 pts. and 5.2 ast. He is a very up and down player, so keep an eye on him when he goes on a hot streak.
5) Omri Casspi (F - Sac - 5%) - Casspi has averaged double figures in 8 out of his last 9 games as he?s receiving around 28-30 minutes per game. He hits threes, rebounds pretty well, but doesn't help much in other categories at the moment. He?s not a starter on fantasy teams yet, but if you wanted to wait on him, I couldn't blame you.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
FIVE GUYS
With the fantasy playoffs looming or starting in most leagues, now would be a good time to make-over your team. If you have still have Sammy Morris or Larry Johnson in your line-up, then you really need to read this and thank me later. Below are players who are owned in 50% of Yahoo leagues and could start or provide insurance for your team. Oh, how impolite of me, you are VERY welcome.
1) Alex Smith (QB - owned in 37% of Yahoo leagues) - There comes a time in life when you need to forgive and forget. If you own Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer or Donovan McNabb, then Smith would be a great insurance policy to have. In the case of owners of Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez, now would be a good time to take the Vanessa Bryant approach. He hasn't treated me well, but damn that ring is huge. Smith, in his last three games, has thrown for 769 yards, 7 TDs and only one pick. That 19.25 points per game average is fantasy's equivalent of that huge rock.
2) Kenny Britt (WR - 29%) - I was going to make a corny joke about Rock Cartwright, but I just found out he wasn't starting. Sometimes life just hands you lemons. Anyway, with 25 targets, 14 catches, 216 yards and 3 TDs in his last three games, Britt has become a favorite target for Vince Young. With receivers, you want targets and if you are getting more than 8 a game, you have a good chance to score a lot of points. 12.53 points per game in his last three is nothing to laugh about.
3) Jason Campbell (QB - 26%) - OK, last QB, I promise. I?ll wait for you to stop laughing on this one. Thank you. Football Outsiders wrote an article about Campbell a month ago stating that Campbell is very underrated and has played better than his numbers would indicate (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2009/jason-campbells-sack-rate). Since that article was written, he has averaged 17.37 points per game in those four contests and has 21.44 and 25.58 points in his last two games. Look for Campbell to play well as the Redskins play the role of spoiler with home games against the Giants and the Cowboys.
4) Quinton Ganther (RB - 4%) - Ganther will not stay at 4% for long as he was just named the starter at Oakland this week. Rock Cartwright was playing pretty well, so I don?t see why Ganther would get the nod, so look for some sort of 60/40 split with this situation, much like the Browns situation is.
5) Fred Davis (TE - 19%) - Now you might think I?m mistaking the Redskins for the 2007 Patriots and I wouldn?t blame you. But, because Washington sucks in real life, people perceive that these players have little value in the fantasy world. Since Chris Cooley went down, Davis has averaged 6.83 targets per game, which is gold for a TE. It?s on par with guys like Brent Celek and Heath Miller.
I neglected to mention Davone Bess (WR - 12%) as he is getting a ton of coverage as a huge sleeper, which doesn't really make you a sleeper anymore. Donald Brown (RB - 34%) is intriguing because he could receive a lot of touches the last few weeks as the Colts do their usual starter-benching towards the end of the season. I admit I don't make it a point to watch Oakland Raiders games, but Bruce Gradkowski (QB ? 3%) has averaged 17.48 points since receiving the starting gig over JaRussell Marcus, or whatever his name is.
1) Alex Smith (QB - owned in 37% of Yahoo leagues) - There comes a time in life when you need to forgive and forget. If you own Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer or Donovan McNabb, then Smith would be a great insurance policy to have. In the case of owners of Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez, now would be a good time to take the Vanessa Bryant approach. He hasn't treated me well, but damn that ring is huge. Smith, in his last three games, has thrown for 769 yards, 7 TDs and only one pick. That 19.25 points per game average is fantasy's equivalent of that huge rock.
2) Kenny Britt (WR - 29%) - I was going to make a corny joke about Rock Cartwright, but I just found out he wasn't starting. Sometimes life just hands you lemons. Anyway, with 25 targets, 14 catches, 216 yards and 3 TDs in his last three games, Britt has become a favorite target for Vince Young. With receivers, you want targets and if you are getting more than 8 a game, you have a good chance to score a lot of points. 12.53 points per game in his last three is nothing to laugh about.
3) Jason Campbell (QB - 26%) - OK, last QB, I promise. I?ll wait for you to stop laughing on this one. Thank you. Football Outsiders wrote an article about Campbell a month ago stating that Campbell is very underrated and has played better than his numbers would indicate (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2009/jason-campbells-sack-rate). Since that article was written, he has averaged 17.37 points per game in those four contests and has 21.44 and 25.58 points in his last two games. Look for Campbell to play well as the Redskins play the role of spoiler with home games against the Giants and the Cowboys.
4) Quinton Ganther (RB - 4%) - Ganther will not stay at 4% for long as he was just named the starter at Oakland this week. Rock Cartwright was playing pretty well, so I don?t see why Ganther would get the nod, so look for some sort of 60/40 split with this situation, much like the Browns situation is.
5) Fred Davis (TE - 19%) - Now you might think I?m mistaking the Redskins for the 2007 Patriots and I wouldn?t blame you. But, because Washington sucks in real life, people perceive that these players have little value in the fantasy world. Since Chris Cooley went down, Davis has averaged 6.83 targets per game, which is gold for a TE. It?s on par with guys like Brent Celek and Heath Miller.
I neglected to mention Davone Bess (WR - 12%) as he is getting a ton of coverage as a huge sleeper, which doesn't really make you a sleeper anymore. Donald Brown (RB - 34%) is intriguing because he could receive a lot of touches the last few weeks as the Colts do their usual starter-benching towards the end of the season. I admit I don't make it a point to watch Oakland Raiders games, but Bruce Gradkowski (QB ? 3%) has averaged 17.48 points since receiving the starting gig over JaRussell Marcus, or whatever his name is.
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