UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez

Before I go into this stacked pay-per-view card, I wanted to quickly review The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale.  While there was no surprise that Roy "Big Country" Nelson won, there were a few others.  First, Marcus Jones being knocked out by Matt Mitrione was the shocker of the night.  Jones was a huge favorite going into the fight and his career has to be over at this point, or at least won't be seen for a year.  Another heavy favorite was Houston Alexander who did not fare too well in his fight with Kimbo Slice.  Two 3-to-1 favorites losing makes for an interesting evening.

THE MAIN EVENT

Anyway, on to UFC 107.  The UFC needs this card badly as they have been decimated by injuries, judging controversy and a lack of title fights.  I see no realistic scenario where Diego Sanchez can defeat BJ Penn.  While many have criticized BJ for having Peter griffin's conditioning, those criticisms are very unfair.  His last three fights were against three of the best conditioned fighters in the UFC (Sean Sherk, GSP and Kenny Florian).  He has consistently fought much larger opponents in the past and can hardly be faulted for losses to GSP.

After winning his first 17 professional fights, Diego lost to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch (who are no slouches, by the way).  He moved down the card for a couple of fights and defeated Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida to earn this title shot.  On a side note, can someone explain to me how a victory over Clay Guida earns you a title shot?  Clay Guida is always in an exciting fight, but he is like the Harold Miner of MMA (sorry for the dated reference).  He's one of the more entertaining guys but he loses to any good fighter he fights.  More on that later.  Diego getting this title shot is not very deserved, in my opinion.  He'd have to, at least, avenge his loss to Roger Huerta.

Bottom line:  Diego might have better conditioning.  MIGHT!  But BJ will be able to weather the expected early onslaught because, for all of the hype over Diego's striking and ferociousness, the last time he knocked out a fighter who currently fights for the UFC was at the Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale when he knocked out Kenny Florian.  Over four YEARS ago.  It's not like Sanchez can not be taken down.  Expect a fight much like Penn/Florian fight.  Diego will get frustrated and he will make a mistake.  What that mistake will be, I guess that's why we pay the 45 bucks.  Or, at least, go to Hooters.

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo

I don't care what anyone says, I'm really looking forward to this fight.  First of all, Cheick Kongo is the scariest looking guy in the UFC not named Brock Lesnar.  Second, Frank Mir is the best trash-talker in UFC bar none.  Both of these guys are coming off of devastating losses and this is kind of akin to those Loser Leaves Town matches in the WWF or WCW.  While the loser will not have to leave, it will be a serious blow to their title hopes.  Mir should easily win this match.  Kongo has good striking and.......... good striking?  Mir should be able to get it on the ground where Kongo would have a better chance of becoming President.  Also, who knows, Mir could probably win a striking match over Kongo.  Mir is never going to fight a guy stronger than Brock Lesnar and Kongo is nowhere near of a challenge.

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida

See?  I promised I would talk about Clay again.  I'm still pissed he lost to Ruben.  Anyway, Florian is a pest of a fighter.  He has amazing jiu-jitsu and nasty elbows.  Guida's only saving grace is that he can't get any uglier.  He is probably looking forward to being elbowed in the face repeatedly.  I can't think of a bigger disparity in looks that I can remember.  I am still trying to remember what Guida is good at.  He can take a punch or a kick, but that doesn't win you a fight in the UFC.  Or, as we've seen recently, maybe it will.  If the judges view getting punched in the face as a positive, then expect a resounding victory for Guida.  Sadly, I'm not even kidding.