Friday, January 8, 2010

The Bored and the Beautiful

Fantasy basketball is different from the rest of the major fantasy games.  It provides the farthest gap between real-life value and fantasy value.  In baseball, if you put up big numbers, that is what your value is since it's such an individual sport.  If a player puts up massive yardage in football, he is obviously valuable because his team is gaining those same yards.  In basketball, however, there are so many categories, variables and players involved, that one person's numbers do not necessarily correlate to real-life value.  In fantasy, a player gets penalized for turning the ball over and shooting a low FG%, but those players are usually on bad teams and are forced to handle the ball a lot and are put in worse positions.  Take Shawn Marion, who for years was the #1 player in fantasy because he put up points, rebounds, steals, blocks and shot great percentages.  Was this all due to him?  No, the system he was in, Steve Nash, the fact that he had little offensive responsibility (meaning he could hide on offense and take people by surprise) and the fact that there were no rebounders on the Suns, which gave them all to him all contributed to his fantasy superstardom.  But, we know in real-life, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are infinitely more valuable.

But, we're not talking about real-life here.  To win in fantasy basketball, you need to win with the players who are boring, but do not hurt you.  Think of players who add to the table and do not take anything off.  This is why I have railed against pre-gun Gilbert Arenas, Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose.  Below are players you might see as boring, but ones you need to get because they will win you your league.  The good thing is, once you realize this fact, you can start to trade for these guys by playing on other owners' misconceptions of value.

Kevin Love:  Love is seen as a plodding center if you just take a quick look and rarely does anything to get on SportsCenter.  But, he is a great passer, a great shooter and a great rebounder.  Love is a top-30 fantasy player and if you have flashier players to try and get a guy who will put up great percentages, 18 points and 11 rebounds, then you need to get him.

Mo Williams:  The guy that always gets wide-open looks because no one is paying attention to him is always dangerous, especially when that player is very good to begin with.  Williams has the benefit of having an invisibility cloak whenever LeBron James is on the court.  This has equated to a .458 FG% for the season and 2.3 threes per game for a prominently perimeter player.  He also puts up 4.9 assists and is shooting over 88% from the line.  Williams is a great glue guy, who will balance your FT% and your threes.