I have come across a mock draft for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. I think it's a good idea to at least take a look every other week, to just see who's moving up and down and who's overvalued or undervalued. We'll break it down into sections, so this post is easier to follow. Keep in mind, this was an "expert" draft, so the biases towards certain players may be in conflict with actual reality. But, I will rate these players based on where they were drafted in this particular draft.
The picks are based on: http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/
The Cliff Lee Under-valued Pitcher Division
Roy Halladay (Round 4, Pick 2): This section refers to pitchers who are undervalued for whatever reason (change of scenery, past injuries, bad reputation, etc.). It seems strange to list a 4th rounder in the sleeper section, but Roy Halladay will be a top 3 pitcher this season, which he already may be. First, though he's going to a hitter's ballpark, he will now get to feast on the weak National League and the even weaker NL East. He will get a healthy dose of Mets, Marlins, Nationals and Braves. So, instead of facing the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, he will now face their backups with one of the only lineups in the NL that can compete with the AL. Think 21 wins, 2.60 ERA and 8.5 K/9 at the very minimum. If he's still around in the third round, I'm taking him.
Cliff Lee (R7, P 11): Lee finally came through last season and will be picked within the first 30 picks for sure this year. For whatever reason, Cliff does not receive the respect he deserves in fantasy. What more proof do people need? I find it shocking that Cliff Lee was picked in the 7th round before Tommy Hanson (7-7). People might forget that Lee won the Cy Young award in 2008 and had great peripheral numbers last year, in what was viewed as a down year (3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 7.0 K/9). He'll now be pitching in the cavernous Safeco Field, so while he may be back in the AL, his park will more than make up for it. Plus, he's proven he can pitch in the AL.
The Pitcher Roulette Wheel
A strategy I like to utilize is taking a lot of risk on pitchers, since teams should be built around hitting. It is never a good idea to take pitchers in the first and second round. You can always mix and match. If you draft 4 fliers, then wait for a month to see how they are performing, you can make up for the innings later in the year and you will have more information. In the meantime, you can pitch them against weak matchups, which is something you can't do with hitters.
The four pitchers I like for this strategy are Cole Hamels (9-2), Brandon Webb (11-12), Edwin Jackson (19-6), Ben Sheets (20-10) and Erik Bedard (20-12). Hamels was on the rise until his struggles last year, which can be largely contributed to pitching so many innings when the Phillies won the World Series. Webb is an injury risk but has Cy Young potential. Jackson had a sub-3.00 ERA well into July before he imploded. Sheets has 5th-6th round potential, but is the biggest injury risk of them all. Bedard was considered a top-10 pitcher as recently as two years ago. If you can actually get all five of these guys, you'll win if two of them pan out.
The Sky's the Limit
Carlos Gonzalez (9-7): In the 9th round, you can start taking risks. You can probably justify taking him in Round 7 ahead of Nate McLouth (6-2) and Chone Figgins (6-12). He played half a season last year. If you project him for a full year (based on last season's numbers), he would have had 26 HRs and 32 SBs. That, and he also hit .284 and had a .878 OPS which shows he is hitting for power and has a good eye, though he strikes out a lot, if that makes sense. For a guy with 30-30 potential, you can take the risk.
Julio Borbon (19-5): For some reason, no one was on the Borbon bandwagon in any of my leagues last year, maybe due to his only being UTIL eligible. Now, with OF eligibility, he is a true steal, no pun intended. When taking guys who ONLY steal bases, it is tough to justify taking Jacoby Ellsbury (2-7) in the second round or Figgins in the sixth. On a side note, Figgins in Seattle equals a huge disaster. He's playing in a weaker lineup and a bigger ballpark. Enough said. But, back to basestealing. If a guy has leg issues during the year, he is completely useless and guys who have speed will have leg issues at some point. Why spend an early pick on a basestealer, when you can nab Borbon in the bottom third of the draft? He has 50 SB potential (he had 67 last year, if you project over 162 games) and will probably get you around 10-12 HRs and score a lot of runs. Give me David Wright and Borbon over Ellsbury and Magglio Ordonez.
The Limit's the Sky
Alfonso Soriano (6-5): Please do me a favor and stay away. He has no trade value and I couldn't give him away last year. He missed 45 games last year and only batted .241 with decent power and he's not getting any younger. Please just stay away and grab Andre Ethier or Carlos Lee.
Jason Bay (3-7): I will not be drafting Bay this year. While his final numbers were great, he disappeared for two months in Boston. Now, take him away from a hitter's paradise at Fenway to the dead-end zone called Citi Field. Add to that, just signing a huge contract, so he has little incentive to play for. While he may not see a huge dropoff like David Wright owners saw last year, expect a precipitous drop in numbers. Think .265, 20 HR and 80 RBIs. That's not what you want to spend an early pick on. Let that be someone else's problem.
The Brady Anderson Big Year Conundrum
This is the biggest wildcard in all of fantasy baseball. This pick can sink you or cruise you to the league championship and there is no way to decipher which way it'll end up. Will Mark Reynolds be this year's Josh Hamilton or will he be Ryan Braun? I tend to stay away from these guys and go with more established players. But, if you're in the second round and the top guys available are Reynolds, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, then I can see where you might want to take the leap. Future superstars have to start with one good year.
Matt Kemp (1-6): Perhaps the biggest surprise in the first round is Kemp. He is the epitome of the five-tool player. If you take him this high, you are probably expecting 30 HR and 40 SB. if you don't get that, then you paid too much. While his HR numbers have risen every season, his .842 OPS scares me. When a player has less than .900, then he is not a true power hitter. If he's not a true power hitter, then what are you paying for? Steals? We went over that already. Take Kemp in the mid-second or later. Don't waste a top pick on him when you cantake a guaranteed player earlier. You don't want to blow your first rounder. You can't recover from that.
Joe Mauer (2-1): I would really avoid taking a catcher this early. I am definitely in the minority on this one. Everyone loves Mauer and that can happen when a catcher wins the MVP. If you told me he would get those numbers guaranteed next year, then I would take him with the 7th-10th picks. That will probably not happen. Keep in mind, he hit 28 HRs last year. He hit 36 HRs in the four years prior combined, so I am pretty suspicious since last season when against a lot of previous information that we had on Mauer. If you take Mauer in the first round and he puts up 12 HR and 75 RBI, then you completely whiffed.
Ian Kinsler (2-2): For all of his potential, I would stay away from Kinsler based on one stat. 133 missed games in the last four years. While missed games are slightly overrated since you can have a replacement player put up stats for the games he missed. But, that many games missed consistently is a scary trend. His .814 OPS is also below average for a premium player, though the 30+ SBs helps. It is too much of a risk to take him that early.
